Tory party backs Theresa May in confidence vote
Conservative party backs leader by 200 votes to 117

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17:29
So this is Brexit. Welcome to our live blog on the Tory party vote on Theresa May's leadership.
The British prime minister has just been addressing the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers. The secret ballot of party members will take place from 6pm with a result expected between 9-10pm.
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17:33Theresa May is expected to win the 159 Tory votes required for her to remain as leader of the party. So far, at least that number of MPs have come out and said they will support the PM. However, the vote is secret which means MPs could say one thing to the media and do something entirely different in the vote.
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17:39
So how did this come about? As of this morning, at least 48 Tory MPs -- 15 per cent of the party's MPs -- have written to 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady expressing no confidence in May, triggering the vote.
Yesterday, May pulled the parliamentary "meaningful vote" on the Brexit withdrawal agreement -- a vote May was certain to lose. She then embarked on a doomed whistlestop tour of Europe seeking some concessions, or at least clarification, on the Irish backstop aspect of the deal. She was told in the Netherlands, in Germany and in Brussels that there would be no change to the withdrawal agreement. Nada.
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17:40
If May loses, Brexit could be delayed or even abandoned https://t.co/tvFYEdQBSf pic.twitter.com/pzHhfy57J7
— Paul Scott (@Paul5cott) December 12, 2018 -
17:42The Sunday Times's Tim Shipman reports that May has told the 1922 Committee that she will not contest the next election as leader of the Conservatives. Apparently ministers were crying in the meeting.
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17:47Will that be enough to guarantee May a victory in tonight's vote? According to the BBC, some of the waverers are now asking the PM when she intends to step down as leader: will she go after Brexit at the end of March or will she wait until closer to the 2022 provisional date of the next election?
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17:49
The BBC's current tally of public declarations in the #NoConfidenceVote is:
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) December 12, 2018
For Theresa May - 187
Against Theresa May - 35https://t.co/XjnmXtME5b -
17:51
Tim Shipman says May is not putting any firm date on her departure.
Sounds like May’s pledge to go is not legally binding, to use the Brexit parlance
— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) December 12, 2018 -
17:51
Theresa May tells 1922 Committee that Brexit deal can only pass with support of the DUP - sources
— Denis Staunton (@denisstaunton) December 12, 2018 -
17:57If May survives the vote, which she probably will, does she have any hope of getting the Withdrawal Agreement through parliament? The DUP won't back it with the backstop but there's no hope that that will be removed. So what then? A likely no deal Brexit. Will that prospect be enough to bring about a second referendum? And if May does survive the confidence vote then what next for Rees-Mogg, Boris and the rest of the Europhobes in the European Research Group. Many, many questions will remain after this evening.
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18:00
Strong and stable https://t.co/P0tu2stGPY
— Pat Leahy (@PatLeahyIT) December 12, 2018 -
18:03Voting has now started in the confidence ballot. Expect a result in about three hours.
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18:06
This is getting slightly ridiculous. Another Tory MP says @theresa_may committed only to going before 2022 if election then - but would not rule out leading party into a possible “snap” election in coming year! “We’ve got her for another three years!” was the heartfelt cry
— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 12, 2018 -
18:10
MP Nick Boles tweeted: “Theresa May was crystal clear: she will not lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. She now deserves the support of all Conservative MPs so she can get on with the job of delivering a Brexit compromise that can win a Commons majority.”
So then nothing is clear. MPs are also reportedly no better aware now of when the deferred meaningful vote will take place in the Commons. Possibly before January 21st.
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18:12After the 1922 Committee meeting, cabinet minister Amber Rudd told reporters: “She’s made the commitment that I think is what people wanted, but she was very clear that she wont be taking the general election in 2022.”
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18:16
And more on all this from an MP in room: “She told Adam Holloway she would not fight the 2022 election / would not say the same about GEs prior to that”
— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 12, 2018 -
18:19
May apparently made a big pitch to MPs in the 1922 committee about the need to getting the DUP back onside, admitting that relations had deteriorated between the two parties.
How she proposes to do that while the backstop remains in place is anyone's guess.
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18:22So it seems there's some clarity on that now: May gave a committment not to fight a 2022 general election but left the door open to contest an earlier general election as Conservative party leader.
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18:23Cliff Taylor: Sterling has reacted calmly enough to the day’s drama, weakening from its opening of 90.62p to as low as 90.69p after the holding of tonight’s vote was confirmed. However as it became more likely that Theresa May would survive the vote, the currency stabilised a bit and is now trading around 89.95p, according to Bloomberg data. Traders were relieved that the immediate uncertainty and potential chaos which would have followed May being voted out of office has been avoided. There had been predictions that this would immediately have led to the currency dropping further. However even if May wins, the path to approval of the withdrawal agreement remains long and fraught. More swings in the currency market surely lie ahead. Sometimes we feel the financial markets are operating on the basis of particular information not available to us all. But in this this it appears that traders and investors are as confused as the rest of us.
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18:24If you'd like to get in touch, please do by emailing dgriffin@irishtimes.com or via twitter @dangriffinIT
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18:26
Strikes me the pledge to get DUP backing for any Brexit agreement is a bigger deal than vowing to go by 2022. First, 2022 was a pipe dream anyway. Second, winning DUP support appears to be an impossibly high bar. Arlene wants "fundamental legal text changes." EU: non, nein etc
— Tom McTague (@TomMcTague) December 12, 2018 -
18:29Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg said he was not persuaded to vote for the prime minister in the ballot. He told the Press Association: “It was all the same old stuff. Nothing has changed.”
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18:31From Reuters: Theresa May has secured indications of support from nearly 200 of her MPs, which would be enough to ensure she wins the confidence vote. The PM needs a simple majority - from 159 of 317 Conservative MPs - to remain leader.
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18:36
It really isn't much of a concession for Theresa May to say she won't lead the Tories into the 2022 general election since it's far more likely there will be an election in the next three months than then.
— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) December 12, 2018 -
18:44
Listening to the BBC all day, it's amazing how little they discuss the Irish backstop even at this stage, when it is so abundantly clear that it is the most imporant thing in this whole crisis.
From the Press Association: Arlene Foster has warned Theresa May that tinkering around the edges of the withdrawal deal will not be enough to win her support.
Amid the unfolding crisis around her leadership, the prime minister met the DUP leader and deputy leader Nigel Dodds on Wednesday to discuss Brexit.
Mrs Foster said she warned Mrs May that the controversial Irish border backstop proposal, which will tie Northern Ireland to certain European regulations if a wider UK/EU trade deal fails to materialise, was “dangerous” to the economy and Union.
Foster wants the backstop gone (and she won't get that).
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18:45
Here is how to interpret no-confidence result. 130 votes against @theresa_may, she is in dire trouble. 100 against “nothing has changed”. 80 against “strong and stable” (ish).
— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 12, 2018 -
18:48
From a Brexiteer source: Nigel Dodds has confirmed that no significant progress has been made today between PM and DUP contrary to what PM told 1922.
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) December 12, 2018 -
18:59Tory MPs have now been voting for nearly one hour. 317 of them will cast ballots in a metal box in Westminster on Theresa May's leadership. Voting will go on until 8pm when the votes will be counted with a result expected by 9pm. If, as expected, May wins her party will be barred from challenging her leadership for one year. However, if the victory is a narrow one then she could come under pressure to resign.
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19:01
Confused about what's happening with the leadership challenge against Theresa May and the political chaos over #Brexit in London? Then this analysis by our man @denisstaunton in London is for you... #mostread on @IrishTimes website right now... https://t.co/TQIznAfb5g
— Simon Carswell (@SiCarswell) December 12, 2018 -
19:05
Press Association political editor Andrew Woodcock says Theresa May might have saved her job by declaring to Conservative MPs that she will not lead the party into the next general election, but she risks turning herself into a lame duck prime minister.
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19:08
— Sarah Wollaston MP (@sarahwollaston) December 12, 2018
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19:17
Proud to have voted in support of the PM, thank you to the many people who have contacted my office today to urge me to do just that pic.twitter.com/pF5ChA4xHh
— Margot James (@margot_james_mp) December 12, 2018
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19:21According to media reports, about 80 per cent of Tory MPs are now said to have voted. The rest have just under 40 minutes to cast their ballots.
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19:31
Tory MP Bernard Jenkin, who signed one of the 48 letters which triggered this whole thing, says he has no idea what the numbers are going to be this evening. But even if Theresa May wins we still have a problem, he says, noting how the DUP will not support the withdrawal agreement. "We need a leader who is positive and enthusiastic about the opportunities of leaving the EU," he tells the BBC. He adds that the UK needs a new pm who will go back to Europe and hammer out a new deal on the Irish backstop...
"Which bit of 'We are not going to renegotiate' do you not understand?" the BBC presenter asks him.
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19:41
Cliff Taylor writes: UK business is finally finding its voice, with the CBI and the Institute of Directors both strongly critical of the challenge to Theresa May, saying it created even greater uncertainty. Which, given the way things have been, is some achievement.
However the difficulty for business is that even if, as expected, she wins the vote, the uncertainty goes on. There may not be any greater clarity on the timing of the House of Commons vote and its passage still looks very difficult, with May reportedly saying that it would require DUP support.
Companies are now pressing the button on expensive contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, an issue now for many Irish businesses as well as their UK counterparts.
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19:44
Irish Times political editor Pat Leahy writes: The Government is unlikely to issue any reaction to the Conservative party vote. The best thing we can do is keep quiet, says a senior source.
Meanwhile there is relief around Leinster House that the prospect of a 2019 election had receded after Micheál Martin's offer to extend the confidence and supply deal with FG for another year. “The stock markets have responded favourably to our move,” says one front bencher, tongue in cheek. -
19:49
If the UK wants to delay Brexit, how does it do it?
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19:52Less than 10 minutes until voting closes. A result will then be expected within the hour. May is likely to win... but by how much?
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19:55
Meanwhile, back in Dublin (writes Simon Carswell), business groups are concerned about the lack of detail on the Government’s no-deal contingency planning. There are growing concerns among companies about the increasing likelihood that the UK will crash out of the EU in light of the political turmoil at Westminster.
The groups are calling on the Government not just to publish in detail the contingency plans but one group, Ibec, wants a new fund to help stabilise the businesses most affected by a hard Brexit. The Government is resisting revealing its hand on the basis that it is “not strategic or in the national interest”. Still, the lack of detail is a worry with just 106 sleeps to Brexit.
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19:56
One minister 'I'd like to punch the ERG in the face - this is our moment to show that they are NOT the Tory party' - their challenge to PM seems to have failed, but they still certainly have numbers to carry on blocking her in Parliament
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 12, 2018 -
19:57The BBC just said a result is expected by 9pm "at the earliest".
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20:01So that should be that. Voting closes, counting begins.
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20:02Simon Carswell writes: The Government’s press people have just said that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker spoke by phone this evening. Both agreed the EU-UK divorce deal, which has led to the leadership challenge against Theresa May in London this evening, was “a balanced compromise and the best outcome available,” a statement said. They made clear that they were not for turning on the withdrawal agreement, however. “While they agreed to work to provide reassurance to the UK, the agreement cannot be reopened or contradicted,” the Dublin statement said. The timing of this announcement is odd; it will hardly help May in her attempt to survive the vote and reassure Tory doubters within the party’s ranks that she can extract reassurances from Brussels this week.
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20:16
Another item from Simon Carswell: While political chaos reigns in London, Tániste Simon Coveney tweets to reassure people that it has not spread to Dublin. Of the extension to the confidence and supply agreement with Fianna Fáil ruling out an election in 2019, he says: “Both parties have acted in the national interest at an important time when political certainty is needed!” In other words, unlike in the UK.
Extending FG+FF Confidence +Supply deal into 2020 is right decision for the Country + will allow Govt to plan comprehensively through 2019 for #Brexit +other Govt priorities. Both parties have acted in the national interest at an important time when political certainty is needed!
— Simon Coveney (@simoncoveney) December 12, 2018 -
20:17
Our decision to maintain stability over the next 12 months will not be universally popular, but it is the right one. Ireland simply cannot afford the sort of political chaos we’re seeing in Britain at this critical time. I’m satisfied it is the right decision for the country 🇮🇪
— Micheál Martin (@MichealMartinTD) December 12, 2018 -
20:23It will be interesting to see how each side responds to the result. The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg says a source told her that David Cameron's team once said that if more than 60 MPs had voted against him in a confidence vote then he would quit. At the same time, many expect May to continue to lead the party even if she only receives a majority of 1.
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20:27
Our decision to maintain stability over the next 12 months will not be universally popular, but it is the right one. Ireland simply cannot afford the sort of political chaos we’re seeing in Britain at this critical time. I’m satisfied it is the right decision for the country 🇮🇪
— Micheál Martin (@MichealMartinTD) December 12, 2018 -
20:31
PM Theresa May arrives back in Downing Street waiting for result of confidence vote by Conservative MPs
— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) December 12, 2018
Latest updates: https://t.co/Ch4c5PimRa pic.twitter.com/qJE6f2hvVn -
20:44
We should have a result in about 15 minutes.
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20:45Theresa May is also expected to make a statement.
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20:50Reporters have been admitted into Committee Room 14 in Westminster for the announcement of the result of the Tory confidence vote in Theresa May's leadership.
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20:50About an hour ago.
Boris Johnson leaves Parliament after casting his vote. For the PM? Or against? pic.twitter.com/sQZcVp41Gp
— GEORGE COOTE (@RealCoote) December 12, 2018 -
20:51
not allowed to take a photo but if you’re wondering this is what committee room 14 looks like....over 100 journalists at one end, a gaggle of Tory MPs chatting at the other...we will find out May’s fate in 15 minutes pic.twitter.com/KJstqOPpVu
— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) December 12, 2018 -
20:53
Waiting to learn Theresa May’s fate in Committee Room 14, where Charles Stewart Parnell lost the leadership of the Irish Party in 1890
— Denis Staunton (@denisstaunton) December 12, 2018 -
20:59Here we go, incoming...
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21:00Conservative party has confidence in leader Theresa May.
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21:01
Votes cast in favour: 200
Votes against: 117
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21:04So a majority of 83 members of the Conservative party voted for Theresa May's leadership. 117 is a big number to vote against her though. It will be interesting to see what the ERG and their buddies will do now.
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21:06Media reaction so far is that this is by no means a comfortable result for May.
Rees Mogg says “this is a terrible result for the prime minister... The PM must realise that under all constitutional norms she should go and see the Queen..”
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) December 12, 2018 -
21:08
There’ll be relief in No10 at that - but the truth is no one really got what they wanted today. Those who triggered the vote just look frustrated, unfocused and lacking a strategy. For the rest of us - the Government stumbles on, no nearer an answer or resolution.
— Craig Oliver (@CraigOliver100) December 12, 2018 -
21:11A statement form Theresa May is expected shortly from Downing Street. Jeremy Corbyn says the PM must bring her "dismal deal" back to the Commons next week.
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21:12Theresa May will travel to Brussels tomorrow where she is unlikely to win any concessions on the Irish backstop from the leaders of the EU member states.
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21:19
From Reuters: Britain's parliament needs to regain control of the Brexit process, opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn said after prime minister
Theresa May survived a vote of no confidence from her own party.
"Tonight's vote makes no difference to the lives of our people," Corbyn said in a statement. "She must now bring her dismal deal back to the House of Commons next week so Parliament can take back control." -
21:28
Theresa May says she is pleased to have received the backing of her party. She acknowledges the significant vote against her but says the party must now get on with the business of Brexit.
She says she will seek legal and political assurances from Europe that will assuage the concerns of the Commons on the Irish backstop.
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21:30May, in what turned out to be a very brief statement outside Downing Street, says the party's renewed mission is delivering Brexit, bringing the country back together and building a country that works for everyone.
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21:34The DUP's Nigel Dodds says the result doesn't change an awful lot. "As things stand the withdrawal agreement would have no hope of getting through the House of Commons... One of the mysteries is how on earth she brought this withdrawal to the House of Commons."
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21:36
Dodds tells the BBC that the Irish backstop "has got to be changed". He's claiming Theresa May, in her statement outside No 10 just there, said she will seek changes -- (but she didn't actually say that, she talked about assurances, not changes). Dodds says May needs to finder her "inner Maggie Thatcher".
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21:39
Perhaps someone should show @theresa_may this statement from her Brexiters, warning that a general election looms if she does not ditch her version of Brexit pic.twitter.com/RmNETjWY0r
— Robert Peston (@Peston) December 12, 2018 -
21:44
Cliff Taylor writes: Sterling edged down slightly after the vote -- though it is still more than 0.5p up on day at right on 90p against the euro -- as investors and traders tried to work out what it means. Like the rest of us.
May’s departure would have hit sterling but the relatively high numbers who voted against her do not give confidence that she can get Commons support for the withdrawal treaty. So we are back where we were with little idea of a way forward. More political and market drama awaits.
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21:49Here's a video of the announcement of the result of the confidence vote.
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22:00We'll leave it there for tonight. What next? What does it all mean? Check irishtimes.com and the newspaper tomorrow for reaction and expert analysis. Incidentally, tonight was supposed to be the Tory party Christmas do. Cheers!